Steve Hillier: ladies 　 　 and gentlemen good evening 　 um my name is steve hillier 　 i'm 　 the vice principal international of the university 　 　 　 and it's an absolute 　 pleasure 　 for me personally 　 　 to welcome you to the second in the current series of enlightenment uh lectures 　 um i think most of you here 　 know that the the scottish enlightenment was that period 　 in the eighteenth 　 　 century when scotland 　 　 　 poured 　 　 out 　 uh intellectual and scientific accomplishments that 　 ultimately 　 　 um thinking and doing that ultimately 　 　 changed the world 　 and these 　 enlightenment lectures really celebrate 　 　 that reality in a contemporary way 　 by encouraging global leaders 　 of the day uh like this evening's speaker 　 to um examine aspects of of the enlightenment's 　 　 　 legacy in the context of 　 our own changing fraught 　 　 　 and hectic time and so 　 these lectures are all about creating dialogue and discussion and they've been 　 part of the university 　 　 　 now 　 uh 　 since 　 　 this current series since two thousand and eight as i say this is　the second 　 lecture 　 for the year and the first was by professor amartya 　 　 sen 　 　 actually celebrating 　 the two hundredth birth 　 year of 　 david 　 　 hume 　 in july the the the acknowledged 　 father of the enlightenment and when uh professor 　 sen spoke 　 　 he he he had a a record 　 number of over a thousand people who tuned into 　 him so this evening's lecture 　 is in the same theme the same spirit 　 and it's also 　 　 part 　 of the highly successful our changing world 　 series 　 of lectures in which 　 invited 　 　 　 speakers 　 focus on the so called uh grand challenges of　our time the the global challenges 　 that face society and the role that this university edinburgh 　 university 　 　 　 plays 　 　 through its research 　 　 　 　 in addressing 　 these issues these challenges challenges 　 such as 　 food energy and water 　 security the spread of infectious diseases 　 developments in technology and medicine climate 　 change some of these will be touched upon i believe again this evening the our changing world 　 series of lectures also 　 　 form 　 part of a 　 　 completely innovative interdisciplinary 　 　 　 　 first year 　 course at edinburgh 　 university 　 which is aimed at our undergraduates 　 　 and also uh 　 at students from schools in the uh area and i particularly welcome those of you from those schools 　 　 who are here uh you are very welcome 　 to this lecture so now ladies 　 and gentlemen 　 it is my privilege to introduce 　 　 this evening's enlightenment 　 　 　 lecturer 　 he actually 　 　 doesn't need much introduction aubrey 　 manning um was the professor 　 of of 　 natural history here from nineteen seventy one and 　 　 has been such 　 　 in an emeritus 　 　 form since 　 he retired 　 　 so it's been best part of forty 　 years 　 that um 　 professor 　 mainwaring has been inspiring 　 　 　 our 　 undergraduates 　 　 postgraduates 　 　 　 　 and colleagues 　 his colleagues alike 　 　 with his enthusiasm 　 　 　 　 　 and and passion for for his subject but more much more than that um 　 aubrey 　 manning 　 has also 　 　 been enthusing 　 the outside world over 　 　 the same period and really making a difference in that respect his his skills 　 as an orator 　 　 and story teller 　 　 really have 　 made him 　 　 a globally renowned public figure and his contributions to the public understanding 　 　 of science are truly legion he's probably best known 　 most recently as the presenter of b. b. c. two's 　 highly 　 　 　 　 successful earth story and 　 talking landscapes series 　 certainly 　 i think all of　us will will will relate to to those wonderful 　 　 um uh episodes 　 　 　 professor 　 　 manning has had numerous recognitions and awards befitting 　 　 his internationally renowned status 　 　 including 　 the fellowship of the royal society of edinburgh 　 　 multiple honorary 　 　 degrees 　 and 　 an 　 o. b.　e. awarded 　 　 in nineteen ninety eight i could go on at length but i won't ladies and gentlemen 　 he is an edinburgh 　 legend 　 　 and i now call upon him to give his enlightenment 　 　 　 lecture 　 　 on 　 population 　 can 　 we begin to talk sensibly
　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　
Aubrey Manning: uh chairman 　 　 ladies 　 and gentlemen well thank you for that 　 kind 　 introduction so 　 i feel 　 um quite 　 humbled 　 really 　 to be giving an enlightenment 　 　 　 lecture uh i mean the this was the time when this small country 　 was at the 　 forefront 　 of uh 　 thought 　 across 　 the whole globe 　 　 　 and you are not gonna get 　 david hume or james hutton 　 or adam 　 smith walter 　 scott not quite 　 　 　 　 that from me however 　 　 　 it's uh uh a privilege to be here and 　 i hope that i'm 　 going to 　 say some things which will 　 get some discussion of 　 an issue which i 　 don't think 　 is intellectually 　 very difficult at all i think it's extremely 　 obvious however 　 　 　 　 　 　 it is 　 tied up with a whole realm 　 　 of 　 uh feelings about ourselves 　 and what we're doing on the planet 　 　 and that's where all the trouble uh starts now or or i don't mike tidal so jess my have to toot um i don't think we are talking sensibly which of us to maybe 　 　 beginning now i've got a certain amount 　 of form in in this subject because i first joined the conservation society in nineteen sixty six because 　 　 it was the 　 　 only you need a a um i all than i a she an eye i had come across but make shouldn't the word population i then its slogan population resources environment it saw those 　 three aspects of existence as being inextricably 　 　 　 linked together do you hmmm i mean okay 　 　 um but its is an hour of forty five years on from then and it a there's an awful 　 lot 　 still to be done now first uh 　 a disclaimer 　 a hmmm i hmmm well certainly 　 　 not 　 a disclaimer 　 　 from this 　 person uh an all or from want to use l. as so their i i agree with it uh one hundred in ten to send i profoundly what i 　 want to say is that he um 　 like me 　 is a patron of population matters 　 which has a very good 　 website 　 if uh a what looking up but i i want to make it quite clear the what i'm going to say tonight is not necessarily the policy or views 　 of population matters 　 　 and its trustees 　 it's a personal opinion the a though 　 there would be quite a lot of overlap 　 　 i'm quite sure of that don't am i don't feel 　 that you need a great mass of statistics 　 　 a mead to night it it is i your all be tent leaf from l. e. with it seven then the an reasons to think um and we celebrate it all seven belly at a of fairly human being i i think loch her have the thirty first and with uh a point the thing the was pointed it as a little go oh in the philippines right now a or and in yeah not two or 　 three but a the lectures ago 　 in this series 　 richard 　 mailed long guy able a lecture uh on climate and the climate 　 deniers i had as and he entitled 　 it separating scepticism 　 from denial 　 i thought it was an excellent lecture uh about what 　 science really is and how one can make judgements as to what's good science so the bad science and what isn't 　 science and if he pointed out how important pull up an their uh it was to separate scientific findings which can be factually established 　 　 at 　 least up to the point you may have to change your at lake of of for the moment this is the explanation from uh beliefs 　 or opinions now i and it's not quite as clear cut with what i want to 　 　 speak about tonight because there are a lot of facts and i don't think the facts are actually in dispute 　 　 there are 　 no 　 　 population deniers 　 　 in the sense that nobody 　 actually believes that there's seven billion people on the planet 　 or that we're increasing 　 at two hundred thousand a day i think that is common knowledge and everybody 　 be 　 they uh from 　 extreme left extreme right weird 　 　 religion or no 　 religion um they all believe that the question is what we deduce 　 　 from 　 that and what argument what opinion what 　 attituude 　 　 we are　going to take to that situation 　 　 i'm 　 speaking as a biologist and therefore 　 i want to give you some biology 　 　 　 to start with because it is why my view is as 　 i will put it to you well the colour it situation at the somebody in the c. a. a all of he a spoke about the perfect storm 　 which the human species faces it is this storm of uh economic problems 　 of climate 　 change of population of food supply all of those 　 coming together 　 and there are 　 huge political and social issues which 　 have to engage us absolutely now at this 　 moment 　 and 　 you might 　 feel 　 and many people do feel that to talk about 　 the numbers of people 　 population growth and so on at this is time is completely wrong that's not the priority the point of view 　 which i wish to put to you is that the trouble with population is that it's not a crisis it's an insidious 　 　 　 change we are 　 unaware 　 　 　 of　the extra strains 　 which are put upon 　 the global society and the planet 　 by their is to hunt the thousand extra to are i've every day i never lie sits ne'er of my uh it point is that it won't have a go all why i i less we begin to take issue so i think the we must begin the now of the i'm to begin is always fifty years ago a now to um but um because i i want to talk about population that role of them at a shins i'm must begin by recommending or all if you to have it look at this a part at go reap rate reproduced friend ends article is a furnace assess from the cape is this from but i mean i'm is get now but um he but it i put out this are d. and this article in a deliberately 　 　 provocative way he takes 　 nothing 　 into account at all except the physical constraints of 　 being alive 　 and staying alive on the planet and there　are all kinds of problems about uh 　 access to minerals 　 to water to 　 food and so on and in the end of course everything 　 has to be subsumed to that cause there's 　 　 　 no waste 　 everything 　 is recycled uh you have to eat bodies of course because they're　a source of of nutrients you have to uh a cover of a t. i. ocean's because their are a hate to sink and if it that they limb it calm so that he point sound here about ten　to the sixteen 　 ten to the eighteen when you can't keep cool the 　 oceans have boiled but that point is c. points us as he uh in to case we would be a hundred and twenty people to every square metre 　 now obviously we would not be 　 living uh uh i will be it leaving in really think of those clive rice uh hmmm lieu we we chris place as in dubai 　 　 　 this 　 this would be really high rise stuff we're talking l. that we are pin the struck as such a okay what the might point that we shall i am this as clearly that's 　 not to going to happen and clearly nobody would want it to happen so um it's like the old gag about you know how glean with uh um uh a woman with web we'll use sleek with me for ten bob what you lee may for ham the thousand bow out which just haggling 　 about the price id that you a here we're just 　 haggling about the figure aren't we 　 nobody 　 can possibly believe that all population could 　 or should go on growing right 　 but we have to start 　 　 from where we are and i have a real problem when i 　 try to put across 　 of people it of my p. l. try to put across a lie de is if i go to somebody and try to engage them somebody in the environmental movement 　 in friend's of the uh um of to or well wide fun for an h. uh or 　 save the children or half ford all crash and i would and i say to them the crock real problem that the i'm real problem there is a real problem with population may use so the on so as label come up with almost invariably and the 　 asymmetry is because if one of them comes up to me and tries to say uh look children uh or in the that's a all of the hunter in the well but you subscribe i don't say if well as hun guards snot probably d. is population people seem incapable 　 of 　 　 recognising that what is not sufficient is nevertheless 　 absolutely necessary and in fact from professor a rajah geoffrey last year was talking about the uh ipac 　 ipac 　 formula 　 　 　 and he was arguing 　 that uh um it was 　 wrong 　 of us to concentrate on population 　 simply because we wish to keep affluence but in fact you could um reduce affluence and you could leave the population as it was 　 that was the inference i gained from his remark i 　 believe that's profoundly wrong no biologist would think that but there is this 　 asymmetry 　 and i want you to be aware of it ladies 　 and gentlemen because if you look 　 at the environmental charities 　 to date 　 none of them mention the problem of human numbers it's 　 there the back of for a a back and if you begin talking to them they'll 　 begin 　 to make some acknowledgements but they believe 　 　 　 because this is a so called 　 sensitive issue that if they emphasise population in 　 any way they will not get so many subscriptions and they may well be right so a biologist cannot see it in that way because biologists believe that the world is already grossly 　 overpopulated 　 　 　 　 that the human beings and their domestic animals 　 uh 　 calm for uh uh the day they are they form 　 a gigantic proportion of the biomass 　 　 of terrestrial 　 　 animals we are 　 grossly 　 out of balance with the planet and most estimates would suggest 　 that already 　 we are 　 　 using 　 up the resources 　 of about 　 one point three to one point five 　 planet 　 earths 　 　 we are living 　 on capital and it's not being renewed 　 so um it is absolutely fatuous 　 　 to 　 stick to this for a meal are and say 　 look it's affluence that's 　 the problem every little briton 　 consumes sixteen times 　 as much as every little 　 bangladeshi sure that's right but does that mean that the bangladeshis 　 　 　 should just stay as they are all what we don't we want them all 　 to become much wealthier 　 　 and and 　 live and a standard 　 which is more comparable to la i don't i what is that going 　 to do about the planet 　 okay 　 you will already 　 determine that i'm not talking straight science here 　 i'm talking opinions biologically based opinions and are aldo 　 　 leopold 　 is an important person from nice biologists 　 and here is one of his 　 most telling statements a lot often 　 felt it we do live 　 　 in a world of wounds and it's distressing extremely distressing uh 　 and 　 therefore 　 many people are just i a lair of it leopold is gone play glee correct two animals the live in 　 southeast 　 a sure i just hang on in southeast 　 a show there may be two just re hundred sumatran minor as um and a few hundred more about bus as monkeys i think the chances of that s. of i doing are very slim i am the present trends now for many of you well i spec many of you what are not aware 　 　 that such animals exist and share 　 the planet 　 with this at the moment and am many more up on not 　 accusing you 　 i'm thinking of the audience outside oh more couldn't care less where they exist or not in which case that a all the lucky a then i am have for me it is a sense of sore uh will that they will not be around a round much longer 　 for reasons entirely of uh numbers times 　 greed okay 　 um now when you talk about extinction rates is the one of that frightening thing in the ink is the biologist 　 　 　 come across you must be fairly 　 hard nosed know i just i'm 　 a bit tired of uh um any eagle or that put in a concerned about the planet 　 really deep greens and i 　 ramble one 　 who got 　 up in a lecture 　 uh being given by bob may who was then the present the raw society and a pretty hard man and owed uh um uh p. he needed to me uh to be it hope dealt with gently and uh um some belize i do you you on not to uh uh you're talking about extinction entirely in the abstract don't you will eyes that and is uh once you been talking seven 　 species of going stink it to which may eyes response was 　 can you name one of the i colour apps own green party of course not a that you can 　 easily come up with statistics like that the people we we i all on go here's 　 may　and lawton's spore and excellent account 　 　 of the science of extinction the one is going on of the moment and here is the international union for the consummation of nature 　 pairing mean is taking late trying to look at this is but that's serious 　 data uh what's actually going on and it lady an not ish just survey uh about the then the um the a fifty thousand species is and i shall you are that gone 　 to experts people on the ground who have some real possibility to census 　 on a repeated basis at you can get a good idea of what trends i going all and or that a you can see the clack they've got a classification here and we will see that sound mark stang to rather few at the moment critically endangered uh endangered bob are blow an so long but this is the kind of statistic that one the is to um be able to put across 　 to governments saul conservation bodies if you're trying to get some really well established scientific basis 　 for the policies 　 that you're taking it's not easy the come by but nobody 　 could look at 　 a but a figure 　 like this with bliss about fifty percent nearly 　 of the species which i a looked at which are all in an 　 endangered category this looks like the beginning all of a stall and a deep many buy our just believe that the sixth mass extinction is 　 already 　 in progress with extinction rates as may and lawton 　 of suggested uh uh till or or a two or 　 three orders 　 of magnitude 　 　 greater 　 than that in the fossil record so 　 things 　 are going wrong this is the biological basis 　 of my concern about human numbers 　 now um 　 um just what happens this is 　 probably a to increase palm 　 oil production 　 　 because the demands 　 on a palm oil are increasing enormously it's vegetable well some some operation is base a bow from space here's 　 　 a wonderful um but a graph uh um picture taken from the um spaceship which was heading out towards 　 　 mercury 　 you remember the the one it had to flip round the uh i think et a slingshot 　 from the us gravity i think goes off towards 　 　 my carrie any weight to is do that a job this is the west coast of south america and you can see this is the most a the a s. it in the well this an no 　 cloud no right in the end are here but here's 　 the and a some base and and look these are not clouds you not natural clouds this muck as the amazon 　 　 buttoning and the biz in in government in collaboration with other 　 governments is doing its best but it's been doing its best for 　 forty years and not very much um 　 to show if rate uh wear the ming on capital and it i'm do i mean on is quite all be as that good so oils was apply um uh a climate uh are all un the stray now um there are or how the areas where we've had to with givers than actual have at at at for um purposes and uh 　 that's um that is uh canada 　 　 for the we pair is and this is link and chip prairies 　 now we need 　 that a lace you have to man we have to exploit all the good agricultural 　 land 　 we've got we have to hammer 　 that land 　 because 　 of the situation which we find that is a old with roughly at the moment one billion 　 uh inadequately 　 fed and that increasing rapidly we have to hammer 　 the land and certain green preferred 　 green routes shall we say 　 like all ghana guy i quick culture a adjusts just for the birds 　 weak annals are for that we have to go 　 for 　 g. 　 m. and for art switch will fresh a i that the get just through the hump 　 maybe 　 　 fifty ham the j. as down the line we can change back but we can't 　 do it at the moment and we mustn't criticise thick agricultural industry this straight we can ask them to do take certain things in to consideration 　 if we have 　 um uh an opportunity to c. but we rely on the barley barons so um okay i but pick could my worry about the sixth mass extinction is of course that the it's the charismatic animals 　 that will go our quality 　 　 of 　 life and that of　our children is the ones that will immediately 　 　 　 suffer 　 we won't 　 be aware of most of the extinctions but we'll be aware when the tiger 　 　 no longer lives in the wild and when the elephants are threatened 　 our quality of 　 life will go 　 there's 　 an aesthetic 　 　 component 　 to this as well as a 　 hard biological one now let 　 me not underestimate the huge 　 efforts 　 which are go- a a how it people are going into to try to reverse this situation there are enormous amounts 　 of activity biologists 　 um uh non specialist people 　 trying to conserve 　 trying to um get some sort of 　 protection for the natural 　 world 　 trying to reduce 　 um uh erosion 　 　 get 　 better methods of agriculture and so on it is not all bad news i recommend publications by the institute of um 　 international 　 　 　 institute 　 of environment and development much 　 excellent work's based in non than much 　 excellent 　 work particularly 　 in 　 　 sahelian 　 　 africa burkina 　 　 faso and niger 　 chad and so on and you can see there are good studies 　 which suggests that population increase in these areas which is very rapid isn't 　 always 　 immediately 　 　 　 bad news what's happening is that traditional methods of agriculture are being recognised as the way forward not 　 high tech deep ploughing and so on but 　 in fact planting 　 　 holes which enable you to conserve 　 　 water 　 　 and to and 　 　 to fertilise with um mulch 　 and ground crop residues 　 　 　 and of course the traditional terracing 　 which has been 　 going　on for millennia 　 　 　 　 in parts of the far east and producing huge crops it requires 　 　 a lot of people it's very labour intensive but that's not a bad 　 thing in the short term because there's an awful 　 　 lot 　 of people around the problem comes of course in that in the end unless 　 　 the population stabilises and fairly quickly it will be swamped but there is 　 good news for the moment and if we get the right lessons from it we shall achieve 　 something 　 but look 　 we must be realistic 　 i showed you pictures of forest 　 being cleared 　 for palm oil 　 　 plantation there was a symposium in may this year sustainable palm oil 　 challenges 　 a common vision and the way forward organised 　 　 by the zoological 　 society of london an admirable 　 effort 　 but it says this at one point insatiable 　 　 　 demand 　 for 　 vegetable oil combined with high yields and profitability means that palm oil 　 expansion is set to continue yet 　 the predicted 　 scale of expansion makes it a strong contender 　 for the single greatest threat to biodiversity 　 　 　 on the planet how can these socioeconomic 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 and environmental goals be reconciled well i'm afraid the short answer is that they cannot 　 uh something has to give either 　 the demand 　 must go down or the bioversity* 　 　 　 will disappear we watch watch that space but 　 don't count on it for the sumatran 　 　 rhino and the proboscis 　 　 monkey both 　 of whom 　 live in areas where uh such clearance 　 is taking place now okay 　 um that's what we do and we're all i think in our hearts aware 　 that we're doing that um human beings are extremely good at denial 　 we can go on 　 as hitherto 　 　 and we search for the return 　 　 to the status 　 quo 　 ante 　 particularly 　 　 　 　 at the moment but of course every aspect of our denial 　 is linked to the fact that we are hooked 　 upon 　 growth 　 population growth and economic growth 　 go together economists in general like growing populations because there　are more producers 　 and more consumers 　 and everybody supposedly gets rich now 　 i'm 　 don't not here to knock economists 　 i have a great respect for them but i recognise 　 　 they they must recognise that it is not 　 an exact science you will 　 be well aware at the moment that the complexities 　 　 of economic 　 　 modelling almost 　 　 parallel those of climate 　 modelling and 　 on 　 any issue should we s-　um cut 　 now and reduce 　 the deficit should we spend in order to 　 get economic growth going you will find economists 　 　 　 on 　 each side of the argument 　 　 probably a nobel laureate 　 　 on each side of the argument as well now this 　 　 ought 　 to give economists 　 　 　 a little bit of caution 　 if there's 　 so much disagreement 　 the certainties may be somewhat 　 illusory and economists 　 　 　 whom i've attempted 　 　 to discuss with will tell me that i uh i have 　 really 　 　 little 　 idea about 　 economics and that's absolutely 　 right 　 do you remember 　 a few years ago 　 　 　 　 there was an attempt 　 to select 　 the b. b. c. select 　 britain's 　 favourite poem 　 and it came uh 　 　 　 the attempt 　 was made 　 　 quite soon after 　 that wonderful 　 　 film four weddings and a funeral 　 came out and everybody expected that um uh w. h. auden's 　 　 wonderful 　 　 　 um uh 　 　 mournful 　 poem 　 there 　 switch off the lights turn off turn off　the lights switch off the television or but that would be a winner 　 because it was spoken superbly 　 　 in that film but no 　 it wasn't 　 that it was old kipling they went back 　 the british 　 public 　 went back enormously 　 　 　 　 　 huge 　 uh surplus of people voting for kipling's 　 poem 　 　 if which 　 i don't like very 　 much but anyway um 　 　 　 　 　 uh at the time there was 　 　 a lot of notices 　 　 were appearing 　 in 　 people's 　 offices 　 　 postcards 　 　 witty 　 postcards 　 　 um you don't have to uh 　 be an idiot 　 　 to work here 　 but it helps and that sort of thing you remember well one that i 　 like particularly 　 　 　 if you can keep your 　 head while all about you are losing theirs 　 　 maybe you don't understand 　 　 　 the situation and i this is what i would say to economists 　 　 　 　 who accuse 　 　 me simply of 　 being ignorant 　 　 　 of 　 economics boy 　 are they ignorant 　 　 　 of biology the the constraints 　 which we have to live with are these 　 this is what this is the starting point that's what we've got okay and it's a pretty lonely 　 　 place is it not uh we can't rely on expanding　it　much we're scraping 　 around on the surface 　 doing the best we can but um in the end that's all that there is and so we must 　 economics must understand 　 　 the planet 　 and must recognise the constraints 　 sometimes 　 what 　 　 　 economists 　 　 say almost beggars belief to me um in the 　 i mean the their uh 　 　 house magazine uh the economist 　 with some excellent 　 writing in it i uh acknowledge 　 that in october last year 　 writing about india compared to china there are two 　 reasons why india 　 will soon start to outpace 　 china one is demography china's 　 workforce 　 will shortly 　 　 start ageing in a few years' 　 　 time it will start shrinking that's because of its 　 one child policy indira 　 　 gandhi's 　 tried something similar in 　 india when she called a state of emergency 　 　 and so 　 on there was an uproar 　 and protest democracy 　 　 was restored and coercive 　 　 population policies 　 were abandoned india 　 　 is now 　 blessed with a 　 young 　 and 　 growing workforce 　 its dependency ratio the proportion of children and old 　 people to working age adults is one of the best in the world and will remain so 　 for a generation india's 　 　 economy 　 　 　 will benefit 　 　 　 from this demographic 　 　 　 dividend which has powered many of asia's 　 economic 　 　 　 miracles 　 　 uh the same week uh details 　 appeared 　 　 of uh the the malnutrition 　 　 　 　 　 in uh 　 asia 　 in india 　 　 an average of thirty percent 　 of 　 children between not uh the for a up to the age of five were underweight 　 　 and in many areas of india more than fifty percent of children were underweight 　 　 in china anywhere 　 less than 　 ten percent now that 　 surely 　 to anybody who's a member of the human race particularly um medically or biologically concer- 　 would 　 indicate 　 　 that this is a simplistic and in the end ridiculous 　 　 　 argument 　 　 　 unsustainable okay um 　 i'm not 　 arguing 　 　 for biologists to rule the world 　 i'm really not but 　 i do 　 believe that 　 　 that 　 economic planning social planning of all kinds should 　 listen to what biologists have to say we should have 　 an input because our 　 input 　 is a bit different and it would help i think 　 uh for the construction 　 of a long term future two very good books which you might like to look at w- uh examine history 　 from the biological 　 point of view we've got of 　 course a long history of civilisations 　 　 　 　 which have flourished 　 and then failed 　 um ours 　 may do the same it may not but if it d- if it does fail　it will fail of course for 　 completely different reasons but the fact is that previous civilisations 　 　 　 　 have 　 taken 　 no account of the biological constraints 　 　 that faced them they were not 　 in the position to do so in his um uh jared diamond's 　 　 book the uh 　 case study which he takes particularly is that of easter 　 island 　 he says 　 that you can regard it as a little microcosm 　 of the world here were 　 this group of people they got there 　 somehow 　 　 　 and they were twelve hundred miles from any 　 nearest 　 nearest 　 land and their 　 economy 　 　 　 their 　 　 whole society depended 　 　 upon 　 uh the use of trees 　 and there was one endemic 　 　 species 　 of tree on the 　 island 　 and must have covered the island 　 all the pollen records in fact show that but they began 　 　 to cut them down and cut them down and cut　them down and jared diamond 　 speculates he wonders 　 　 what 　 the easter 　 islander 　 　 felt who was cutting down the last tree did　he realise 　 what was happening but that is a kind of problem which is 　 just a microcosm of how we don't want to find ourselves 　 let me 　 　 　 conclude 　 this brief economic section 　 　 by by saying that there really are some ecologists 　 　 who think 　 strongly about this tim jackson 　 　 　 from the university 　 　 　 of surrey um 　 has 　 　 　 got a 　 splendid 　 book um prosperity without 　 growth and he he there was 　 he was the econ- 　 economic adviser 　 on the government's sustainability 　 　 　 　 　 committee which has 　 been 　 axed as one of the quangos 　 　 that was cut out um 　 um but tim jackson 　 was in fact echoing 　 　 the some of the work 　 　 by 　 the nineteen 　 seventies 　 of kenneth 　 bowling he talked about a uh i i think on a me of stop which we miss move through from the uh a condom es throughput and i i also the commonest rem recently about 　 kenneth 　 bowling and he said that's a name i haven't 　 heard of for decades 　 he said i don't　think　you'll find one university 　 course in britain that mentions him no never now um if are in i want to move on but the second part here 　 　 　 to talking about numbers 　 and actions now there is something 　 happening as you will know the united 　 　 nations has had several uh international meetings the first one was rio 　 　 back in nineteen seventy two and then there've been many others since and vested interests 　 kept 　 the 　 discussion of population per se off the agenda 　 it was all environment 　 um 　 health women's 　 　 rights um pollution and so on but 　 by nineteen ninety four 　 the pressure 　 really was growing 　 and　at cairo 　 uh we had 　 　 a discussion which did 　 　 involve population and　it came 　 out with some declarations 　 　 one of which i will just quote 　 to you it's 　 on the chapter 　 　 um 　 on 　 reproductive rights and 　 reproductive health reproductive rights embrace certain human rights that are already 　 recognised in national laws these rights rest on the recognition of the basic right of all 　 couples and 　 individuals to decide freely and responsibly the number spacing 　 and timing of their children and to have information and means to do so they also include the right of all to make decisions concerning reproduction free of discrimination coercion 　 or 　 violence 　 and so on 　 one could not disagree with that one would merely 　 say that we're a little short on making sure that everybody has the information and the means to um carry out that right however 　 　 　 it's beginning thats was 　 　 ninety four well seventeen years ago 　 　 　 okay 　 and 　 gradually i think you'll 　 agree the topic 　 of human 　 numbers 　 　 is rising a little higher on the agenda and we should i want to take two extreme cases of population the first is an obvious one thing hmmm but then this is uh ethiopia 　 　 　 　 ethiopia 　 　 　 　 　 in two thousand and ten 　 we know it 　 well because of course of 　 um uh bob geldof 　 　 　 and band aid nineteen eighty 　 five perhaps the first and most dramatic 　 　 time in which the images 　 of starving children appeared 　 　 on our screens the population then in ethiopia 　 　 　 　 was forty four million 　 it's now 　 doubled um and 　 　 　 uh 　 in in 　 two thousand and eleven 　 it's 　 actually more than eighty 　 　 eight million and here's 　 the population profile and 　 of course such profiles uh indicate 　 　 the degree of momentum 　 　 which there is in a population um 　 all this proportion 　 which must be 　 more than fifty percent uh 　 haven't yet started to have children themselves so the the growth potential here is gigantic if there's enough 　 food and of course there's not been 　 enough 　 　 food at intervals 　 　 and the west 　 has been piling stuff in 　 　 now my 　 view 　 is that the feelings 　 　 of rich western 　 guilt 　 here are simply not sufficient it is not enough just to say this is terrible we must feed 　 we must do that certainly 　 but we can't 　 　 leave it there and i 　 was extremely glad to see that the all party group on 　 population development and reproductive health that's a house of commons 　 house of lords joint lot two or three people baroness 　 　 tongue 　 　 and richard 　 ottoway 　 　 um 　 　 　 pointed out that although 　 they didn't want to be called malthusians 　 　 　 　 they recognise that actually family planning provision here must 　 be an essential part of any aid 　 now it happens that in um 　 ethiopia 　 　 　 　 mainly is the harm any has been the president for over 　 　 　 twenty 　 years and he's still there and the aid agencies 　 that work in ethiopia 　 　 　 　 　 　 commonly report that they have difficulty in getting 　 um material 　 　 through they are blocked so high we probably has his 　 　 own policy here 　 he's looking towards uh somalia on 　 his eastern 　 flank uh sudan 　 　 and he was looking strongly i'm sure towards uh 　 egypt 　 and libya we 　 can all　s- 　 we have the absolute right 　 i think as 　 fellow dwellers 　 　 　 on the planet 　 　 to point out to 　 the ethiopians that something else has to happen apart 　 from food 　 aid and of course that means that something else has to happen from us 　 as well and we should be making that clear at the same time but it simply is not enough 　 bob geldof 　 um says 　 he's not gonna 　 run another 　 band aid he must be a 　 dispirited 　 　 man but nobody 　 　 could achieve anything with population growth 　 of this kind it's in a very fragile 　 　 part of the world 　 　 in which climate 　 is extremely uh 　 problematic at the best of times hard to 　 　 to know very 　 hard to predict what will happen as a result of global warming so 　 case two our 　 first 　 duty is to put our own 　 　 house in order 　 when i 　 first 　 became 　 interested 　 　 in population matters um 　 one went around i went around 　 　 like the poor 　 man's paul erlich giving 　 talks here 　 there and everybody 　 uh 　 um 　 　 to 　 about 　 　 population 　 most 　 people regarded 　 　 the population problem as being out there it was in the poor south that's where they are 　 and um britain 　 was well we've only got fifty five sixty million be an no i i what are we worried 　 about to you know 　 egypt to the i was strip as see is now i a t. three and so on but that's no longer 　 　 　 tenable 　 and no longer possible nor has it been ever and i have to say to the conservation society's 　 　 credit it recognised from the word go 　 that britain's population was also 　 a problem at that time now 　 um our own 　 house a very different population profile 　 here we are this is two thousand　and ten for us as well 　 　 one can see first of all we live a lot longer 　 than the eth- 　 　 many of the ethiopians 　 　 　 do that's not surprising um we had various 　 booms 　 of 　 um um 　 　 a baby boom era 　 and so on but of 　 late over 　 the last twenty twenty five years the birth rate has been falling and 　 um 　 government's 　 beginning to look at that this　is a very typical profile for any of the european countries including russia governments 　 　 　 look at that and they look down here and they get really worried 　 　 　 you 　 know 　 　 the issue 　 it's uh the pension problem who's going to pay for pensions when 　 we're 　 all of us um old um 　 　 britain's 　 now sixty three 　 million 　 and 　 rising and 　 　 estimates of twenty uh of seventy million 　 by twenty thirty or　so now the pension 　 problem is a series one i　don't deny it but it's tied 　 　 up 　 　 altogether 　 　 　 with 　 our feelings 　 that 　 we long for growth 　 　 in an 　 economic sense and growing populations a factory which is taking on 　 more people uh a village　in the highlands 　 which is flourishing th- those are good signs and bad signs are when the village 　 has no longer got any 　 young people and it's 　 declining 　 　 　 i'm not denying that i share 　 many of those feelings i'm merely trying to look at the biological reality 　 of it we have to get used i think to a declining population but what has been government's um uh 　 attitudes 　 　 towards 　 　 this kind of decline 　 many of 　 them australia 　 　 germany 　 　 　 japan 　 trying to increase the birth rate at the moment sweden 　 and france have done so in the past i was 　 particularly 　 taken 　 with australia 　 　 i met an australian 　 　 at a uh um a 　 　 　 environmental 　 　 meeting recently 　 need you had the play and minister 　 　 for 　 the interior is 　 trying to increase the birth rate in australia 　 　 they're worried 　 about declining 　 population and the slogan 　 　 is one for mum 　 have one for mum one for dad and one for australia 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 that 　 is a 　 political 　 　 　 　 view 　 　 of the situation facing 　 uh human 　 beings living on planet earth if you think of 　 increasing the birth rate here 　 to improve the pension 　 　 ratios here what happens when these people 　 grow up it 　 is of course something that bernie madoff 　 would recognise immediately 　 　 　 this is a　ponzi 　 　 scheme 　 　 　 　 you pay 　 off the interest 　 to the 　 the older 　 contributors by taking on new contributors it is totally 　 　 　 　 risible if it weren't such a serious matter you would wonder 　 how somebody could stand up and look you in the face and say that what britain needs is more young people so 　 　 　 　 i'm not speaking of the uh employment levels of young people now that might be something else they wish to take on hand 　 now most of europe if it was 　 left 　 for itself 　 　 would 　 slowly 　 decline 　 our birth rates are below 　 　 replacement 　 　 level 　 and the britain's was 　 as well until 　 quite recently 　 　 there's 　 a step here and in fact 　 birth rates in britain have gone up 　 and it's 　 no 　 　 use 　 pussyfooting 　 　 around it 　 twenty five percent of the births 　 in britain now come from mothers 　 who were not born in britain themselves so there's a change uh 　 going on and i think there's a message 　 　 there for the mothers 　 who were not born 　 in britain 　 　 as well um it's 　 　 unsustainable 　 so 　 how do we 　 feel about 　 our population well 　 the optimum 　 　 population trust recently 　 um uh commissioned a 　 survey 　 　 by yougov 　 　 　 and here are the results and you know what these things are like this is uh 　 　 three thousand five hundred adults all 　 　 balanced for place of living uh social class income 　 　 and so on and there are 　 the figures 　 and they're 　 　 i think quite interesting 　 it's　interesting 　 to compare 　 scotland 　 with um england 　 and 　 wales and northern ireland 　 isn't 　 it anyway 　 　 uh very few people 　 believe that britain 　 would be better with more 　 people in it and a large uh 　 um mode 　 　 　 think it would be better 　 with fewer that 　 is at 　 least a point to begin from isn't it 　 now of course what's behind these figures 　 and how people in their 　 　 own 　 lives and minds interpret them and feel about them is something quite different one can't say from this straight away sixty five 　 people uh percent 　 of people in britain um uh want the birth rate to uh to fall and 　 our 　 numbers 　 to decline 　 the question wasn't put 　 like that 　 the question was put 　 you know would the u. k. 　 be a and if one looks at what people said about why they had made the decision they they uh 　 said 　 people 　 were worried 　 about increased 　 population leading 　 　 to more congestion to more unemployment to lack of affordable housing to social conflict 　 to a poorer 　 quality of life and loss of 　 open spaces 　 and access to the natural world all of those things and everybody would put have their 　 　 own combination of such factors but there's no question that people are beginning to think about it hard and 　 quite commonly 　 　 one hears 　 in common parlance terms like this overpopulated 　 island 　 and so on so it's beginning now as i say none of it's straightforward 　 but uh merely 　 　 　 as an interesting 　 side question in fact seventy eight percent 　 of people who were questioned said that 　 they would change their be prepared to change their 　 lifestyle 　 well maybe 　 is my 　 response to that and certainly 　 i don't think many of　our politicians would believe that when they dangle things before us in the next um uh 　 party manifestos 　 now uh in terms of how we get 　 on this is family size in britain 　 at the moment and it wouldn't take very much to shift that 　 in a downward 　 direction my opinion 　 　 it's obvious is that the u. k. would be 　 better 　 with a slowly declining 　 　 population and the previous name of population matters 　 was the 　 optimum 　 population trust which raises 　 the question what is the optimum 　 　 population for britain or for anywhere 　 else in that matter well 　 um 　 i'm forced to give a figure 　 i would say twenty million 　 about a third what we have at the moment interestingly 　 enough 　 i went back to look at a 　 book nineteen seventy the institute 　 　 　 of biology had a symposium 　 　 　 　 　 on the optimum 　 　 population for　britain 　 and the consensus 　 　 was twenty million 　 uh that was uh thirty forty 　 years ago 　 when the population 　 was um many tens of　millions less than 　 it is now so the first step it's in fact almost 　 the only 　 　 step i think one can realistically 　 get at 　 this moment is an 　 acceptance 　 that 　 a decline in 　 the 　 our population is not a bad thing it is 　 a good thing it's a huge opportunity to use the people 　 who are here better than they're used at the moment　they　have much more potential so um i was struck here 　 about a comment that richard milne 　 made in his lecture about 　 the climate 　 change and the difference between scepticism and 　 　 denial 　 　 he referred 　 back to uh 　 a 　 comment which had been made in discussion by a previous lecturer in the series stuart 　 　 haszeldine 　 　 　 who was talking about carbon 　 　 capture and so on and in response to a questioner 　 as to why 　 so little 　 　 　 was actually being achieved 　 in terms of carbon 　 dioxide 　 meeting carbon dioxide 　 targets professor 　 　 haszeldine 　 　 　 　 said this 　 at the moment it is socially 　 　 acceptable to put all that c. o. two 　 into 　 　 the atmosphere 　 exactly it is socially acceptable to put c. o. two into 　 the atmosphere 　 so we drive away in the cars we know that people won't criticise 　 　 for being in a car but in fact we know that it　is not the best thing but it's all we can do at the moment now　in just the same way 　 at the moment it is socially acceptable to have any family size you like 　 accidents accidental 　 oh well he was a bit of an accident 　 have of hole work as a but not show it isn't it isn't 　 a thing that worries 　 us all that has got to change in my view 　 　 i was 　 horrified by 　 a piece in the 　 last saturday's 　 guardian 　 magazine well a piece 　 by somebody who address uh 　 simply calls himself 　 father of the third child i bet that's a handful men say when i tell them i've recently 　 　 become a father 　 　 of three what's it like i smile and tell them how the two girls adore 　 their younger brother and so it goes on down 　 i gave in to my wife's ever increasing desire 　 for 　 three when really i felt that two was more than 　 enough 　 poor guy 　 i feel sorry 　 for 　 him i i feel sorry for us 　 as well i feel sorry in 　 all kinds of ways but that is reproduction 　 that 　 uh 　 　 　 how could one possibly interfere in a matter of such delicate sensitive choice but what kind of a choice was this we can be quite sure that the the planet 　 　 uh a but do you carry eat are are or in the planet 　 　 was not taken 　 into 　 order 　 now along 　 with this social acceptability there is a 　 ghastly 　 　 　 　 cult　of maternity 　 　 　 　 reproduction 　 and the joy 　 　 of motherhood 　 　 all of which is there 　 of course it 　 really is children are marvellous the joy they 　 bring 　 into 　 people's lives i'm not knocking that what i'm saying is that everything 　 in moderation 　 okay 　 now there are a couple of 　 old 　 headlines 　 which i dug up years ago 　 　 　 　 　 　 and they show 　 something which is actually quite important in terms of britain's population well the sun magazine you see that was wonderful 　 　 　 　 it's　a happy issue wonderful good for old linda 　 　 　 she's 　 　 finally got a daughter 　 　 　 　 and it it happens at the upper ends of society as well here's 　 the countess 　 　 tears 　 　 of joy 　 she's 　 produced five girls and at last she's got a boy 　 and we're 　 supposed to celebrate with her 　 now we know 　 from the statistics that in families 　 of three or above 　 the first two children are significantly more of the same sex in　other 　 words 　 a great number of children in britain are born 　 because 　 of the parents' desire 　 to have children of both 　 　 sexes it's a luxury i think that we can no longer afford 　 　 we're just beginning 　 to 　 get at an attempt 　 　 to face these awkward 　 　 difficult　issues it is important 　 　 we need to get numbers 　 right up 　 at the front of our 　 discussion child bearing is not just a personal matter any 　 more how 　 can we possibly say 　 that 　 　 　 children are your 　 own 　 　 it's a matter 　 　 of your 　 own personal choice when in fact of course if things go wrong it's 　 society that picks up the tabs we know 　 for instance that um uh uh 　 something like forty percent of pregnancies 　 in britain 　 this is the estimates which the f. p. medics make 　 something 　 like forty percent are unplanned 　 　 that doesn't 　 mean to say that they're unwanted 　 　 　 they may be well become 　 wanted 　 subsequently but unplanned 　 is what 　 is the point i wish 　 to 　 wish 　 to emphasise here because i would suggest that if we are moving into a long term future for 　 the human species then every child 　 must be a child that's wanted bef- 　 from before 　 conception 　 we 　 know in britain that we have the highest 　 　 teenage 　 pregnancy rate in europe second 　 only 　 to the states where 　 recently 　 the right wing congress 　 has just blocked a presidential 　 initiative 　 　 　 uh to tackle teenage pregnancy they blocked 　 it because it's 　 um uh 　 of course from the religious 　 　 right so 'm 　 asking that we have to treat human reproduction very seriously 　 　 indeed 　 　 the arrival of a new human 　 being on the planet 　 is something that we really have to take very 　 seriously now 　 many of things i've said 　 sound anti 　 democratic absolutely they require 　 much greater understanding 　 　 from the 　 from people uh around 　 their 　 reproductive rights 　 as we call them what kind of a right is it to have 　 as many children 　 as you want 　 as 　 i say 　 society eventually picks up the tab so the irony 　 is that if we don't grasp these things well i sense nastu 　 　 trends 　 within 　 　 britain 　 the beneficiaries 　 　 of failing to tackle things in as best a manner　as we can is that the right wing will increase i'm quite sure of it now i'd better 　 make a disclaimer 　 　 　 two disclaimers 　 first　of　all there are alternatives 　 　 　 i reckon if we 　 really don't care about the rest of the planet 　 and just want to move down the friendly 　 path though 　 of course not as far as the friendly 　 path but if we're prepared to devote 　 all the resources 　 that we can get with all the cleverness 　 　 of technology into 　 producing 　 　 more human 　 beings we can do it that's one way it's obviously 　 　 not　a way that i would favour 　 because 　 i'm uh concerned 　 with the other living organisms 　 　 　 as well as what they do for us but the other disclaimer 　 i must make which i 　 hope has become perhaps uh clear that 　 i actually like 　 people i really do 　 　 　 　 i want 　 the human species to go 　 on we've got 　 possibly three billion 　 more years of useful life out of the sun we've only 　 been 　 on the planet 　 　 in homo 　 sapiens at 　 a maximum 　 of a quarter 　 of one million so we've got 　 a 　 future which is uh twelve thousand times as long as the past we've had and i 　 would like us to have it 　 i like to think of us tiptoeing 　 　 into 　 that vast future 　 but i 　 must conclude　with somebody 　 quoting somebody whose 　 view 　 here is absolutely essential at all kinds of level whether you're thinking about 　 unemployment 　 of young 　 people or economic growth 　 or population or how to save 　 the sumatran 　 　 rhino um edmund 　 burke really would have been uh he was a 　 　 he wasn't in the enlightenment 　 　 　 as it were 　 but he was a contributor to 　 it and this is what he said oh i don't want 　 that 　 　 　 　 there so 　 um that's my view 　 i've deliberately um 　 　 　 　 i've stuck my neck out i've certainly 　 said good things i would re- i would respond 　 to again 　 　 and say that not necessarily population matters takes all that i say but we can we can talk about it thank you very much
are but um no no now or or yeah yeah at no that a oh but uh i and one and oh yeah it oh that it it okay yeah then
Steve Hillier: well 　 thank you very much aubrey 　 　 for that um 　 　 　 fascinating and controversial discourse 　 um i believe you've 　 agreed to take a question and answer 　 　 period 　 so can i invite 　 　 you to um 　 　 ask professor 　 manning any questions you may have oh how it laying right up in the corner 　 the are the the microphone on your way oh and with thank you very much for an interesting lecture hmmm a hmmm are i'd that the twenty 　 million figure for britain's optimum 　 population and um would it have the same rati- geographic distribution in terms of the ratio of people living in urban and 　 　 　 rural areas please 　 of course that's um 　 a very 　 telling 　 question and 　 uh people who 　 argue 　 um 　 　 put that to　you straight away where i i who are at the who all give that there's no 　 such thing as an optimum population because you know we we wouldn't be around to 　 　 to to have it in 　 any place um i think why the biologists pick on twenty million is that we could easily so 　 we would be self sustaining in food which is uh actually a 　 very 　 good big 　 big plus particularly 　 in the world that's coming because we um rely 　 a lot 　 on 　 having 　 　 the cheap largely 　 subsidised food 　 　 and 　 　 i think that's going to be becoming increasingly 　 fragile 　 　 and for instance 　 just to give you a 　 figure we use 　 more than our total agricultural land 　 in just supplying ourselves 　 with the meat 　 that we 　 eat 　 of course it isn't 　 our 　 own agricultural 　 　 　 　 land it's land　in south america and so on which is im- we're 　 importing the foodstuffs 　 from 　 geographical 　 　 　 　 　 distribution 　 　 　 　 　 well i would hope so i mean one of the problems i 　 have to acknowledge 　 of a declining 　 population um which i think we've 　 　 we need 　 　 and must have ultimately 　 　 　 　 is 　 um what happens to places 　 that go empty 　 it is really sad if you know 　 there are 　 no longer 　 anybody 　 living in achiltibuie 　 　 　 and the west highlands it's nice to have achiltibuie 　 　 　 　 with i don't know eighty 　 five people or something i don't have any quick solution to that i mean the society would be a 　 very different kind of place um all kinds of economic problems um you wouldn't be able 　 to sell your house because nobody will want to live in it well they might take a summer 　 cottage 　 i suppose 　 but not if it's 　 　 on the croydon 　 bypass 　 um it it's very 　 very difficult i d-　i don't wish 　 to diminish the problems nevertheless 　 i 　 think it's worthwhile 　 picking a　f- 　 um uh a figure out 　 of the air and just beginning to 　 think about it scotland 　 　 as you know　is always 　 　 full of the menace of depopulation 　 i don't 　 think 　 we've still got many more people than new zealand 　 has thank you very 　 much for uh i a really at uh in some ways rather depressing 　 lecture 　 um 　 the there are obviously 　 　 huge 　 dynamics 　 　 at work um around 　 the world with most　of the world's population profiles looking 　 more 　 like ethiopia 　 　 　 　 than the u. k. but it does seem to　be the case as i understand 　 it that uh as countries go through economic growth the the population changes and 　 rather more spectacularly 　 even than perhaps china with the the rather draconian 　 　 measures 　 　 that they resorted 　 to so perhaps 　 it does come down to economics in the end after all and and as we all get richer 　 um we will　all get better otherwise what can we do sure 　 well 　 　 　 　 that the the 　 demographic 　 　 transition is of course the 　 great hope 　 　 of 　 of many people and there are a　lot　of people perhaps like yourself sir 　 who 　 argue 　 that that's 　 uh all we need um george monbiot 　 　 and 　 matt ridley 　 　 　 um fred pearce? 　 　 　 a 　 number of prominent writers 　 　 uh some of them uh matt ridley's 　 　 a bit 　 cornucopian 　 　 　 　 　 i think but um monbiot 　 　 and pearce 　 are fairly sensible about it that's true uh 　 um and of course 　 there's no 　 question that we we must try to improve the economic situation of many of our fellow human 　 beings 　 i mean they're 　 really desperate it's it's desperate 　 um 　 but 　 two things 　 　 　 one i don't think that's enough on its own 　 　 i think we've gotta 　 be pushing straight away because of course one of the greatest 　 barriers 　 to uh economic growth in many of the poorer 　 countries is the gigantic number of young people how do you start 　 in ethiopia fifty percent uh less than fifteen um 　 so 　 　 they've 　 everything 　 　 to gain 　 from getting their 　 birth rate down quickly and they should be we should all 　 be pushing towards 　 　 it from 　 a more fireproof 　 position because we are trying to do the same for ourselves but the second thing is uh i i don't think it's 　 enough because i think we're already overpopulated 　 　 i don't think with 　 it's sustainable i think when the cheapest forms of 　 　 　 um fossil 　 energy go 　 maybe 　 　 a hundred years 　 　 i don't know but 　 we will food 　 supply 　 will become absolutely critical we can only 　 keep going now it seems to me by um 　 　 covering agricultural 　 　 　 　 soil 　 　 with artificial 　 　 uh nitrogen 　 and phosphorus 　 so i think for 　 two reasons that's not enough 　 but of course in the short term 　 you're absolutely 　 right sir we cannot suddenly 　 say 　 um you　know bangladesh must stop growing it 　 must it must grow in one sense but try to cut back on the other uh that's a difficult one to handle but we can only 　 　 handle it if the rich nations are prepared 　 to make their own 　 so 　 called sacrifices hmmm okay a hi um 　 i was an old student 　 of yours um i'm sorry to say we're going 　 to have to part company on the issue of g. m. 　 　 i've i've heard this 　 so many times that uh the the way to to solve the world's problems 　 is basically to to 　 produce 　 g. m. crops i think that's a very simplistic reductionist way of 　 looking at things the world's a very complex 　 place and we don't know all the cons- 　 we 　 know some of the c-　we can think of some of the consequences 　 in terms of um the benefit to 　 to certain 　 uh 　 corporations who will be nameless that's how they're making a lot of money from something 　 that could cause a lot of environmental harm um i think 　 you mentioned that um economists don't understand a little 　 biology i think and that's so the cause a bit of　a stir but　i think a lot　of molecular biologists they 　 know a　lot　of molecular biology but they don't understand a lot　of the complexities of biology and i 　 think 　 people 　 should be very very careful 　 　 rather than just assume that the solution is stick a gene into 　 something 　 and solve 　 the problems could i just very all their got an example of uh at i'd i'd and i'm having 　 a discussion with a colleague 　 　 on this and he actually cited 　 　 he he claimed that we agreed on many things we probably agreed on 　 many things 　 he actually said that the he quoted an example 　 of a a　gene that conferred 　 　 baboons 　 　 immunity trypano- 　 　 to trypanosomiasis 　 　 　 　 　 　 and his suggestion w- the solution for this neck gunned at then and do second a gotten on a i don't trypanosomiasis 　 　 　 　 　 was to insert this gene into 　 cattle 　 instead of 　 thinking 　 　 the the way that 　 the d- the disease 　 is transmitted is 　 by an insect who has quite a complex and very interesting biology and that could be 　 exploited in different ways that would control the disease without 　 　 　 　 adopting 　 　 this sort of reductionist 　 　 view so so just to summarise i think it's a very very simplistic reductionist way we need to be very very careful 　 　 i i know i've heard 　 so much so 　 often 　 that the molecular 　 　 biologists 　 　 saying if these greenies would just let　us have our druthers we could solve the problems 　 i don't agree with it 　 　 　 well 　 let 　 me say that 　 from uh a um a general point of view i very much agree 　 with you i 　 mean i 　 think i said i would hope 　 that eventually we could 　 go back we could sink 　 back to a low intensity 　 type 　 　 of agriculture my problem is that how　are we gonna 　 feed the world in the short term and i simply all i 　 　 can 　 see 　 is that 　 the european union is not using g. m. crops they're using them all over 　 the world 　 elsewhere the yields 　 are spectacular and i 　 just don't think we can afford 　 uh it's 　 it's human 　 　 starvation which 　 i i'm addressing 　 there but i 　 completely 　 agree 　 with you in principle i'd very very suspicious of 　 　 uh the companies peddling these things but 　 um 　 well i 　 was at the oxford 　 　 farming conference last year uh 　 earlier 　 　 this year 　 and i i really was convinced that 　 you know 　 the kind of crops they're getting from argentina 　 　 　 now down the line 　 they may be storing up some problems for themselves 　 i agree but in the short term they're gonna be feeding more people let me say that um uh 　 　 another admission i 　 have to make i'm no long- 　 i used to be very anti nuclear 　 　 power 　 i no longer think that we can possibly a 　 to do without 　 nuclear 　 　 　 power uh i would agree with james lovelock 　 　 if we go 　 for nuclear power on a large scale across the world um 　 many thousands of people will die 　 but if we don't he 　 says tens 　 of millions 　 will die and i 　 believe he's 　 right unfortunately we've 　 painted ourselves 　 into a corner 　 　 and the only way to make a bridge i'm mixing metaphors 　 　 here is to fling over 　 　 them for the time hopefully we can arise 　 on　more settled ground with a world population of two billion i oh uh uh a find so i my faced in ill a. thing uh i mean human job all before and it you've said la a but the problem of weenie need on a mess and uh a buy all that is i be it when job before is job if for show me try to do a. can pick call the t. a you o. of all of these the things i that uh add bat it as buts for the impossible de we do try a and how i just like you see i i could be with you at least ninety five percent okay but i i'm not a might an of a job you are for of to population drop per like to make to suggestions thick uh add a my limited awareness one of the first of time a look at one a population are is or c. as a big blue compiled nineteen fifty six bi the or c. is for the future the cold mine jewel in changing the face of the elf and terms of the history of these ideas then might be um as for to going an look as the it was a joined to have for buy child a for some ecologists so i'm economists possible is um biology as i think the ad it a was to a mess i or was on the use a big books so i was suppose to be uh uh as an undergraduate joke a for a classical and i i did that in to that it was awfully you know liz awfully thick nine uh a i and uh um the other suggestion is um i get i'm lot a i'm not a population jog of for a but for was i a on your population job a for as to walked in the third one saying is that you know the best most effective method to week use the best rage an the phone is sighs in the third one or just to educate woman i i is not we have sicily to am more to from an knee farming but one's for a meant have a good education feel the of some control or the reproduction far me sighs drops and so that's you know the you'd dead who so of say port you fell a solutions to a am rise to to tear um is but maybe but was a kind of a feeding the perhaps the l. p.s solution was pop you know promoting the rest controlled wall the show last that's very important educate u. women are as opposed to be even more important so well i died tent lee agree with than saul all as point am mil i i i'm am that is that is one of the uh um i i it i i i'm in in mine know a a uh or a symmetries saying this c. one of the all kim is the people it main each of they put you is not population is to be as we women of got no but no control of the lights i completely a great all of there's things are cut our contributing your all i'd i mean them the bin some spectacular a examples all of of that to though it with in the in the year for instance this state of carol are push is be nine for a age is do have that on a way the highs this are east you eights in it the good did your are so d. you waits for women as well type a loan this but i rates its is a a it is uh um culture's all different to but uh that is a and major uh something you want to do it any way and it's would be highly effective but i think it's some tube bel some three per as the brace as as in that hmmm oh okay are gonna to to question um a body and to k. it do that you don't favour the solutions some of the solutions put pub to form buy the right does the left how a population control agenda oh i the left is pretty uh i i would place about this actually um the i completely uh i i i've been a did noun it's to i in uh as a uh as her have for an of a press fast yours to racist um know we with the audience is containing is spring cling of the real at well i i'm afraid a they are on know more realistic then then the right um their bit nicer are i suppose an the there are not a uh are you know for uh hmmm most so that i'm it it's to it's a true uh i i mean your are you will remember that to uh a when mouth first came in to power in china um now full that the ghost of china's population was the greatest thing um i it you know when the of merrick an sit nukes down so uh the run out an nukes as still be uh all the way it of chinese the come over they the the eyes if for the train should but are a he said did do knock off to the can people an the population more look off are itself well i suppose he might be right if we go ride a good buy looking of the people he um uh uh did have the different view from ask i've found the left wing very on helpful l. also say ski ring a way very match on a long to a group coals c. or are of their are you say she list to environmental resources as say she a she knife think just affiliate for label party um they've i dig you get an a score in that but base d. a a the way for they deb have mention it it it is some very different low one the come in a because a one it call an g. people i'm and ching human and it's such and i i am any really wen money is we will look a about a looking for the future and may the elle other may embarrassing they which i'd had is a people from from a good coming out it's a well i i agree with what use say but i i i have to tell you i've got five children and it have what the that's oh a i hi my a such a person the i would made the with the fact is their is about the future of where talking that we must do the best but people who are hear um but i i've not find the left a uh very helpful tool i mean they will crewed china are at your of course it for oh it on the the composition in the makes any sense is fundamentally pacifism is the the the what we see to avoid this is is terrible rose source war's and slaughtering each other yes okay okay guess their are are i to lit or did can go into them i think preaching do is such a number of or ding and uh and uh on and you see is thing but uh you all right in min the uh uh i um one can their is some very on pleasant sin oreo as just a round the core man you um right i know are just uh how me that i and a ban a visiting australia i thinking of setting up a no abel based in australia your now uh this is the count of the trying to yeah i need i hear we have in twenty first say tree low face it you job of that i i that sit um i if china's getting a big in the pacific well of america's got we it a big whim as well we are funny species uh we not uh uh hmmm thanks um a just like to stick up for the left a little bit i okay and i'm link to that point that was made by the gender a the front um i i see the left agenda uh is being promoting it quality of opportunity main in countries the currently have i don't or mess and a boar or three eight and buy i'm challenging the structures that maintain poverty in those countries so the the f. the left agenda is to challenge those things i mean keys and it quality of opportunity which has been showing to be the most affective we of reducing bar sleek so all though we might be an an oversupply the topic um but as of it is uh it's s. still d. and the connotation so it a or they go with it i think that is it still has some things or or or you i actually we care enough i i um uh yeah i so they back to have an uh uh of curd of course sure uh of course sure right is just that um i wish that the left a bow just up front with it to point out or at to it isn't um that human um but as an shall eat carol bess really one i was say at the end an the the poppy the best is one can hope a for in the shall term i just to recognise as a free asp eight the planning should involve no's and that it should be completely acceptable to say this just to many we on to do this desirable think cos the to many people so we must tried to all of the policies to i was to promote few want people in the end he have to or if you know who or uh i uh uh uh and all that oh okay i will uh uh excellent for uh cup of perry breed points so the quest a that first point up make is that i think the size economics as an order of mac lead to more complicated than the sides of carving change the following to u. will back hey be a um a sec point point to have a make is when you talk about hammering the lower i agree with u. but uh i think possibly you may be not intention the year light them on a coal to a see any way to do it well or is uh with us as not more human after to you you can get more or are a for that um um oh to mat me could power of a coach and stuff like that the well a long wait from getting to bat but it is one way of getting tent to t. or are to but that um i question i want to make things even more complicated is that um if we do six c. in really encouraging the last number of people to have smaller pam a ease a u. while we that your going to get basically a t. party members popping up five a ten children while sense will people a popping out one a to am want to you then pick weaving to the next generation a but that los this an very interesting u. m. knew hair re m. to of the uh they only were are you of a u. genesis u. you genesis during the i would king a a web late nineteen the early twenties sentry way you an no i was the pour or your responsible feckless people who are breathing lie rabbit it's and the bright intellectuals would have small family is um yes that to at they idea of the t. parse the all producing family is a five uh a clients like them a a city is pretty fried thing is in it i i think it's a uh i don't think it some uh i'm not to why i read about that as what one are ease me i suppose more is how are we keep if we all moving towards um small family sighs how we had a k. e. you am an their re a bill a t. are in if all families off to it really is a bit am a off us so i in the chinese as you now um what a pie is to be having big problems with that one shelf and this this so cold less little and per is who where uh a um uh i a if as off and said that they would be going up into obnoxious else entity am inks that has the scene to of work out at actually i'd check up a we should be a uh the number of uh um i so a you a lot you'll investigation it push a or the that gnats not been the case an off tool children put if for a single uh children in pam or is i mean to or the a mix left got ways of mixing other them that but um oh yeah yes i uh i i take a point about how on the culture it's a it's a good a good fault of monarch ultra as are at a clear destructive or of rum well i diversity uh i just feel it is sleek is the crucial make sure of a as the present my at that we were really have got to produce pomp a crops uh i and some how to do it of as a uh as a of level and put a put the sub c. d. you going in the rye place to have a get's to the right people um i i i i em to have i i'd i how a we couldn't move to uh smooth a situation so that and the and the i are i. need d. uh they've got side number of star is which would be a of interest to you may i in may main now them all ready uh which uh i i you just moon and i this so i in mixed tumbled thats it's a rick mixed um i go on a me i i hand um that passed are as of not lot's a potential a long of it is a an should with them to uh on is no not hi tech off in at out the high tech stuff in the third or world the law from baden and is off to speak any way the ground that's game and going on to the fish freezing plant at the norwegians dom is side done i like to con a norfolk an yeah so it's still then now and or or so uh i do using we can actually alt to but lee void that the no fees you and try out of becoming like rat's some having he people tel population's when they to rec chew a lead it earned that all am mow t. just come up to source we can use hmmm oh well i would help a weak can and i i we are are uh how home may sappy ends sand we are extraordinary really clever um and see we're gonna to need all that type have an as an every scrap to of um the most an technology that we can get a um i non mall for an encourage reading do v. int to new scientist for an say your you have have most extort we solution something i i think one i i read bus the g. you maybe be come possible to spry so of uh uh uh generating cell's a on to room as u. are they tree spread on and saw and uh of a a a all of that is gonna me neat it um hmmm a fruit crunch uh uh i i i yeah and your guess as as good as mind did that are that would be way is oh of uh a avoiding it so i i think if we concentrated much more sprigs all so is big on under float of much more from nor all the neural pin to saw all than africa but uh i i mean they are are of a real problems about doing that are on the a i call on c. it happening in quickly uh a i'd if you wish me to be completely frank about it i think i i think is that got i guy to half to get and a bit worst before they cue you get fess huh of because i i think we need some so but apps on the show the a i one cos all cue give the we've been having that from kinda change and i i think their is have scroll on time i there other the pain year have which is is uh i i think an vents sing that she everybody including a lawn of garments of different persuasions of the c. a an an is of that situation i suppose at the shore to um what we may push as it into a more over year this stick you will be fruit rice as rising food pricey is rising in but uh hmmm a pa from ending else it puts we will the wastes so much would be which would be an excellent thing i lead i'd think the my wife an i other day all or is just saying a fool we very good for us sift well i l. interest a was like a of a sound of leading ink an your uh or a or c. a like them an that um yeah know and main you had uh uh like it to a ate plan twelve ounce as an the day i no a bad or that would we begin to a a how we be the i i think we go all right to remember the three day weak which we had that it's am what your to the young and uh that mean a was a back in kauai an day an and the this is per do going to rest tragedy in their you were know or the happen to british society there a fact we have to stop people working three day wake because of strikes and so on in fact productivity i think went down bob doc to percent because we l. e. were three days an said a five that this sect a in very in cara in message that well uh yeah i already right thing il old to uh um plume as of session now and thank you have press of manning ovaries are actually five or was contribution you did but as job's so of on them from the point if here of the uh and lies and then lecture i use said the i have great it's dialogue and discussion the the next being were the uh a fast an a think this is a little say a let's far as the l. out a changing weld is concerned u. certainly tackled the uh a a some i'll be massive grand challenge uh u. master ticket the n. i could be columnists oh u. um up lord see a the reproduction by le g. s. yes i believe u. um uh encourage uh a uh uh prank at of the some solar reproductive engineering or oh all if create a a possibly is from at you k. should we we for the nice one to but i think all some of the u. reminded this is at least from my point be a from a um that the few chung is twelve thousand time uh as a long is cup par off so i you show it that one the flay a book at if a am in uh pun it of and make the point a that is a four their re is so i think i um or re able f. to this with a huge uh uh um out think about you contributed massively buy being so generous in with your you'll time i i i and falls by giving this lecture so could do you please join whizz me in thing thing to come oh yeah uh okay you no um oh yeah i can so uh the uh at the oh uh okay yes right uh it i production is copyright the university of at in bright